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Uncertain Principles

Physics, Politics, Pop Culture

Friday, November 04, 2005

Approval Ratings Explained

Via Slacktivist, the best analysis I've seen yet of Bush's poll numbers:

John: Hey, Bush is now at 37% approval. I feel much less like Kevin McCarthy screaming in traffic. But I wonder what his base is --

Tyrone: 27%.

John: ... you said that immmediately, and with some authority.

Tyrone: Obama vs. Alan Keyes. Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him. They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That's crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% Crazification Factor in any population.

For a more nuanced big-picture discussion, see Scalzi's thoughts on the matter, which are pretty much spot-on. Saves me a lot of typing.

Posted at 10:08 PM | link | follow-ups |